On Ebola's Challenges
2014-10-18 06:15 by Karl Denninger
Perhaps the apparent transmission of ebola to two health care workers in the Duncan case is nothing more than a statistical aberration. Random chance does occur, you know. But..... I want you to consider a few things.

First, the "non-transmissible" nature of ebola absent physical contact with the body fluids of a symptomatic person with the disease comes from our experience with the bug in Africa. Unfortunately there is a correlation between whether viruses and bacteria in evolved droplet form remain in the air or fall to the ground and it is related to the humidity of the environment. Specifically, and surprisingly, high humidity environments actually appear to inhibit transmission via this route.

This could be trouble. I will point out that I do not know if it is trouble, simply that it could be -- that is, our view of how this disease can be transmitted may be out of date and incorrect in the United States, particularly in homes, businesses and the clinical environment that tend to have climate-controlled spaces -- all with relatively low humidityi

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Second, I was reminded of a NIH outbreak of an antibiotic-resistant strain of bacteria that causes pneumonia -- at their flagship location. Genetic testing proved that the bug they were seeing had been transmitted from patient to patient despite high-grade isolation and excellent infection control both at the personal and facility level. They wound up ripping out the plumbing in their attempts to control the bug, which kept coming back -- and ultimately killed six.

So while I am not raising the "bug-in" flag, it is wise to consider that those who claim to know everything often are proved wrong, and tragically so. This is particularly true when diseases cross some boundary of novelty and thus experience with them in that particular environment is (relatively-speaking) limited.

Life finds a way (from the movie "Jurassic Park"), even if it's a sort of life, in this case a virus, that we'd rather not exist at all.

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