There’s plenty of reason for skepticism over the cease-fire reached regarding eastern Ukraine, but one would imagine that Petro Poroshenko would be among the most skeptical of Russian intentions. Poroshenko and the government in Kyiv had long alleged that regular Russian forces had crossed the border weeks ago to bolster the collapsing rebels near Donetsk and Luhansk, and had recently began an offensive to reach Mariupol. Today, though, Poroshenko announced that most of those Russian troops had pulled out of Ukraine in the last few days — up to 70% of them:
Ukraine’s president said on Wednesday Russia had removed the bulk of its forces from his country, raising hopes for a peace drive now underway after five months of conflict in which more than 3,000 people have been killed. …
“According to the latest information I have received from our intelligence, 70 percent of Russian troops have been moved back across the border,” Poroshenko said. “This further strengthens our hope that the peace initiatives have good prospects.”
However, Poroshenko said the ceasefire was not proving easy to maintain because “terrorists” were constantly trying to provoke Kiev’s forces.
The “terrorists” may be rebels attempting to keep Russia from retreating. Moscow may not need much of a provocation, either. Yesterday, Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of building up forces for an attack on Donetsk, and multiple reports of artillery fire put the truce into serious question:
Sanguine, I think Putin is waiting to see what happens politically here in Nov. Republican win in both houses could signal tougher actions--but Putin is motivated just playing it slow I think